Morgan Stanley has sharply raised its outlook for China’s humanoid robotics industry, marking the second upward revision this year as the sector moves faster than expected from stage demonstrations to real commercial deployment.
The New Numbers
The Wall Street bank now expects 50,000 humanoid robot units to ship out of China in 2026 — nearly double its earlier estimate of 28,000 units. That January figure was itself already double the bank’s original forecast of just 14,000 units set at the start of the year. In other words, Morgan Stanley has revised its China shipment number upward twice within six months, and each time it has roughly doubled.
Looking further out, the bank projects China’s humanoid robot market will be worth about $2 billion this year, rising to $15 billion by 2030. Annual shipments are expected to hit 446,000 units by 2030 — up from a prior estimate of 262,000. Importantly, these figures count only external, commercial sales and exclude robots built for prototypes, pre-order trials, or internal company use.
The bank also expects the market mix to shift quickly toward full-sized humanoids, whose share is projected to rise from 30% this year to 50% in 2027 and 70% by 2028.
Why the Upgrade
Morgan Stanley equity analyst Sheng Zhong linked the revision to three factors converging faster than modelled: commercial verification, supportive government policy, and positive supply-chain feedback. A growing list of Chinese companies — including EV maker Xpeng — have announced plans to reach mass production by the end of the year, reinforcing the bank’s more bullish view.
Beijing has also made “embodied AI” — artificial intelligence built into physical robotic systems — a national priority for its coming five-year plan, directing local governments to support startups with land and office space while pushing banks toward more favorable lending terms for the sector.
On the ground, deployment has moved well past trade-show stages. Humanoids are now being tested and used in factories, logistics hubs, unmanned retail stores, and restaurants — settings Morgan Stanley’s own supply-chain research flagged as early proving grounds for the technology.
China’s Lead in Global Shipments
China’s dominance in humanoid robotics is already evident in last year’s numbers. Chinese manufacturers accounted for more than 80% of global humanoid robot shipments in 2025, sweeping the top spots by volume. According to Omdia data, the leading brands were Agibot Robotics, Unitree Robotics, UBTECH Robotics, Leju Robotics, EngineAI Robotics, and Fourier Intelligence — with Agibot and Unitree each shipping over 5,000 units. By contrast, US players Figure AI and Tesla ranked lower on the global volume list, with Tesla not expected to begin public Optimus sales until late 2027.
Where Morgan Stanley Sees Value
Rather than betting on a single robot brand, Morgan Stanley pointed to the supply chain as the clearer investment opportunity. The bank named Shanghai-listed Leaderdrive — a Suzhou-based supplier of precision robotic components to humanoid makers such as Ubtech and Galbot — as a key beneficiary, raising its 12-month price target to 464 yuan (about $68) from 269 yuan.
The Caveat
A forecast revised twice within six months is itself worth noting: it reflects genuine momentum, but also how uncertain and fast-moving this market still is. Rapid scale-up in shipment numbers does not necessarily equate to proven long-term reliability, and current reporting does not offer visibility into uptime, failure rates, or how closely these commercial deployments are still being supervised.